New risk models may help doctors predict mortality in hospitalized COVID patients


As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, researchers have developed and validated two simple risk measurement tools to help clinicians more accurately estimate a hospitalized patient’s COVID-19 risk of death.

The two measurement models are called COVID-NoLab and COVID-SimpleLab. In collaboration with the Biobanque Québécoise de la COVID-19 in Montreal, Quebec, Canada, researchers examined patient records of individuals receiving care for COVID-19 in 11 hospitals between March 2020 and February 2021.

Patient records were separated into two groups, and each patient record was categorized as low-, moderate-, or high-risk, identified from both the COVID-NoLab and COVID-SimpleLab models.

Researchers found the two scoring systems could predict patient mortality rates with reasonable accuracy, offering clinicians a reliable way to quickly identify low-risk patients who could potentially be managed as outpatients in the event of a bed shortage. These prediction models may help decrease unnecessary hospital admissions during COVID-19 surges.

The research was published in The Annals of Family Medicine.

More information:
Mark H. Ebell et al, External validation of the COVID-NoLab and COVID-SimpleLab prognostic tools, The Annals of Family Medicine (2022). DOI: 10.1370/afm.2872

Journal information:
Annals of Family Medicine

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